Analysing Rangers’ remarkable season
“A draw is a disaster. A draw is a defeat in many ways. It’s not acceptable to draw a football match.”
Steven Gerrard’s interview on Robbie Fowler’s podcast is 45 minutes long, but those three seconds were arguably the best insight into his mindset as a manager. It also goes some way to explaining why, 32 games into the 2020/21 campaign, Rangers have only failed to pick up maximum points in four matches.
The Gers were crowned champions after Celtic dropped points against Dundee United on Sunday, though for quite some time it has felt like a matter of when and not if the title would be heading back to Ibrox. Gerrard’s side have been ruthless throughout and though they top the charts for goals scored, a rock-solid defence has played a significant role in their success.
The easiest way to win a match is to keep a clean sheet. When you aren’t reliant on goals, the pressure is off. Back in October, we dissected the Rangers backline after a remarkable run of form saw them keep nine clean sheets in 11 matches. That figure now stands at 24 clean sheets, eight more than Celtic. They’ve been breached on just nine occasions and, as evidenced in their shots conceded map, it is no fluke.
They rarely give up high-value opportunities, their defensive unit limits the threat of the opposition and Allan McGregor is doing his part between the sticks when opponents are lucky enough to carve out a decent opening.
Rangers’ expected goals conceded total of 20 may give the impression that this sort of form isn’t sustainable. But when you look at post-shot expected goals conceded (16.39), the overperformance isn’t as drastic. A combination of poor finishing and smart goalkeeping can account for that. Across Europe’s top five leagues and the Scottish Premiership, the Gers, comfortably, have the best defensive record.
They also rank first for goals scored, expected goals and possession, averaging 63% of the ball. In The Athletic’s article telling the story behind the club’s success, a snippet from Gerrard’s second match at Ibrox is included.
“Listen, we’re Rangers. We’re Rangers. They’re dominating the ball. It’s embarrassing. This is Ibrox. This can’t happen. I’m not allowing this.”
It was a pre-season friendly against Wigan, but the message was clear. That was a glimpse of what was to come. Rangers now dominate the ball. They dominate the space and dictate the tempo. It is second nature to this relentless side.
Another key part of their title win was what occurred in the final third. So many teams build an attack around one player. They become overly reliant on that individual as a goal threat and it makes them easier to play against.
Rangers have three players in the top five for goals scored in the Scottish Premiership this term. So, three players in double figures and six with five goals or more. By comparison, only Odsonne Edouard has over ten goals for Celtic this term, though they do have five players with five or more goals.
The mean defence and the multi-pronged attack doesn’t happen overnight. Gerrard and his coaching team have been working on this. Consistency, eventually, leads to success.
The average touch map graphic above compares Rangers over the past two seasons. They’re almost identical, but there are subtle differences. The front three are narrower. This tweak gets the forwards into more dangerous positions and explains why so many of the attacking options for the team are having productive seasons.
Their positioning also aids the team press, with the Gers once again having the lowest passes per defensive action (PPDA) average for a second successive season.
Rangers are the real deal. Their success this season is deserved and really highlights how successful long-term planning can be when everyone is bought in.
All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.
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