Analysis: How Lille have mounted a Ligue 1 title challenge
With two games left to play, Lille are three points clear at the top of the Ligue 1 table. They’ve lost just twice since the turn of the year and taken maximum points in 68% of the 19 games they’ve played in 2021.
Christophe Galtier’s side faced Paris Saint-Germain in early May in what many believed to be the title decider.
Lille went into the game having suffered a shock loss to Nimes in their last outing while PSG had romped to a 4-2 win over Lyon. A second successive defeat would have seen the capital side go three points clear at the top.
Jonathan David’s goal in the 20th minute was enough to secure the win for Lille and this opened up a three-point gap. An advantage they’ve maintained ever since.
If Les Dogues manage to secure the title, it’ll be their first since Eden Hazard and Moussa Sow helped fire them to the 2010/11 crown. That title win was built on goals, with no team in Ligue 1 managing to score more than the 68 Rudi Garcia’s men totalled.
This time around, Lille’s title challenge is built on solid foundations.
They have conceded just 22 goals this term, six fewer than PSG. They’ve also racked up 21 clean sheets – the most of any team across Europe’s top five leagues. They’re also ranked first for Expected Goals Conceded.
Quite simply, they have the meanest defence.
It is an even more remarkable achievement when you consider the club sold key centre-back Gabriel in the summer to Arsenal. They spent just a third of the money received for the Brazilian on a replacement in Sven Botman.
The Dutchman has been a revelation since the move to France and is already being linked with big-money moves away from the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. However, Botman’s arrival isn’t the sole reason for Lille’s defensive improvements.
Galtier has tweaked his system. They’ve always been more of a counter-attacking team, with many of their forwards thriving in chaotic moments. They haven’t been as aggressive with their press this season, though, and, as a result, they’ve been able to nullify most opponents.
This is fairly evident when looking at passes per defensive action (PPDA). During the 2019/20 campaign, Lille ranked second for this particular metric and had a PPDA average of 9.32 passes. This season they rank eighth and their PPDA is 12.34.
The defensive solidity map really helps emphasise this subtle change. They engaged with opponents higher up the pitch during the 2019/20 season, whereas this time around they’re a lot more active around the half-way line.
For this to be properly effective, the Lille forwards have to do a lot of work off the ball. In David, Yusuf Yazici and Luiz Araujo, Galtier has three attackers who rank in the top 20% for pressures per 90 across Europe, per FBref.
David arrived with Burak Yilmaz in the summer to replace the departing Victor Osimhen. The Ligue 1 sold the Nigeria international for a reported £70million fee and spent just £25million on his replacements.
Yilmaz, 35, had flitted between Turkey’s top clubs and spent two years in China. His arrival stuck out like a sore thumb at the time. Lille usually sign young talent in the hope they can develop them and sell for a profit. The 66-cap international didn’t tick any of those boxes.
David, on the other hand, did. The 21-year-old had impressed for Gent but was untested at a higher level. He initially struggled and didn’t score his first goal until November.
Since then, however, he’s been a fairly reliable goal threat and is just one goal shy of Osimhen’s tally of 13 last season. Yilmaz has surpassed that, having struck twice in the recent 3-0 win over Lens to take his haul to 15 in Ligue 1. He has six in his last six starts while David has three goals and an assist since the international break.
When it matters most, both have stepped up.
Lille are the perfect example of a club using the transfer market effectively. They find players who suit their system and they play to their strengths. It sounds simple but few seem to do it. Not many clubs can win a title having sold two of their best players in the previous summer while making a profit.
All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.
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