EFL Championship focus: Twists and turns continue in three-way promotion tussle
This season’s Championship promotion race is perhaps the most exciting ever.
Ipswich, Leeds and Leicester have been locked in a three-way battle for the top two for weeks now, and the conclusion to a dramatic campaign is rapidly approaching.
All three teams won last weekend: Leicester, after a poor run of form, got back on track with a 3-1 win over Norwich, Leeds beat Hull by the same scoreline, and Ipswich came from behind to score a memorable last-minute winner against Southampton.
With the race likely to go down to the wire, we’ve delved into Twenty3’s Toolbox to look at the numbers behind the contenders.
Ipswich
Back-to-back promotions would be a stunning achievement for the Tractor Boys.
Kieran McKenna has done a superb job at Ipswich, guiding them to promotion from League One last term and building on that momentum to sustain another title challenge.
No team in the entire EFL has scored more goals (84) than the current Championship leaders.
And they have been shared around the team: Conor Chaplin and Nathan Broadhead have 13 league goals each, while Omari Hutchinson has seven and Kieffer Moore six.
Left-back Leif Davis has been an outstanding creative force, registering a league-high 16 assists.
Ipswich’s all-out-attack approach does mean they can be vulnerable defensively. They have shipped 51 goals, 20 more than Leeds and 16 more than Leicester.
But more often than not, they simply outscore their opponents. There is an admirable persistence and self-belief about McKenna’s side.
However, the numbers suggest they are performing better than might be expected. With an xG of 73.51, they have benefited from some excellent finishing (as evidenced by a post-shot xG of 79.15) and occasional good fortune in the final third.
Ipswich have been remarkably effective when pressing aggressively and winning possession in the opposition’s half. No team in the Championship has made more high turnovers (185).
They typically look to be direct and incisive in attack, too. Their average of 4.23 passes per possession is relatively low in comparison to the likes of Southampton (7.04) and Leicester (6.4).
Without that element of control, Ipswich can be susceptible to counter-attacks. Even though they currently sit top of the table, that defensive weakness and a tricky final six fixtures could prove their undoing.
But there is no doubt that a top-two finish would be an exceptional achievement.
Leeds
Leeds have been relentless since the turn of the year.
After losing 1-0 at West Brom on the 29th December, Daniel Farke’s side were 17 points behind Leicester.
Since then, though, Leeds have won 13 of 15 Championship games, scoring 33 goals and conceding just six.
On their current trajectory, the Whites look a sure bet to be playing Premier League football next season.
But their sluggish mid-season performances mean nothing is guaranteed yet.
Farke has discovered an almost perfect balance between attack and defence, with Welsh duo Joe Rodon and Ethan Ampadu forming an excellent rearguard partnership.
Leeds have kept more clean sheets (19) than any other side in the division.
They also boast the best xG (81.52) and xG conceded (38.15). That is reflected in their goal difference of +44, which is the best of the top three and could well be significant given how tight things are.
Crysencio Summerville has been Leeds’ main man in attack, scoring 17 goals and providing eight assists from the left flank. At just 22, he looks set for a bright future at the top level.
Dan James has also been excellent, scoring from the halfway line against Hull to take his total goal contributions for the season to 20.
And Georginio Rutter has often been the man providing chances for his team-mates, racking up 15 assists.
With enviable quality at their disposal and their imperious form, Leeds currently look the best-placed team to secure promotion back to the Premier League.
It would be no surprise if they were to do so as champions, but the job is far from done yet.
Leicester
Leicester fans will be wondering how they find themselves embroiled in a promotion scrap with seven games remaining.
Not so long ago, the Foxes were the Championship’s runaway leaders. As recently as mid-February, they were 12 points clear at the top and their lead looked unassailable.
But a dramatic slump in form has allowed Leeds and Ipswich to reel Leicester in.
Enzo Maresca’s side, before their much-needed victory over Norwich, had won just one of their previous seven league games.
In most other seasons, such a dip would not have been cataclysmic. But the pace being set at the top of the Championship is relentless and one of three exceptional teams will miss out.
If that is to be Leicester, they will consider it a monumental failure given their position of strength just a few weeks ago.
It would also mean they go into the playoffs on a downward trajectory — hardly ideal heading into high-pressure knockout games.
But all is not lost yet. The 3-1 win over in-form Norwich was a reminder that Leicester are still capable of dominating most Championship opposition.
Maresca, a disciple of Pep Guardiola, has turned his team into a possession-based, attack-minded outfit following his arrival in the summer.
Only Southampton (62.09%) have averaged more possession than Leicester (57.87%) this season.
The Foxes rank first in the division for key passes completed (168) and link-up plays completed (517), evidence of their ability to interchange fluidly in the final third.
While 37-year-old Jamie Vardy is their top scorer with 14 goals, Stephy Mavididi and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall have both been influential.
The latter has 11 goals and 13 assists to his name and looks, perhaps unsurprisingly, a level above the Championship.
Recent form will remain a concern for Leicester, but they will hope their quality can push them over the line in what promises to be a fascinating final few weeks of the season.
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