Fantasy Premier League: The differentials that can drive you up the rankings
The new Premier League season is almost upon us – and Fantasy Premier League managers across the globe will be preparing for the latest campaign.
While the popular template picks are widely chosen for a reason and offer plenty of security, keen players of the game will be on the lookout for differential picks that can give them an edge on their mini-league rivals.
Using the Twenty3 Toolbox, we have picked out five overlooked gems that could help drive you up the rankings early in the 2023-24 season.
Mark Flekken (£4.5m)
Managers who reaped the rewards of last season’s top-scoring goalkeeper, David Raya, would likely have felt disappointment upon hearing the news of his imminent transfer to Arsenal, where he will compete for minutes with Aaron Ramsdale.
Enter Mark Flekken.
In the Spaniard’s absence, Flekken is expected to be Brentford’s new first-choice shot-stopper and, at the time of writing, is owned by barely more than 2% of fantasy managers.
The 30-year-old was signed off the back of a superb season for Freiburg in which he helped the club qualify for the Europa League.
No goalkeeper in the Bundesliga kept more clean sheets than his 13 as he started all 34 of his team’s league matches – an encouraging indicator of his reliability.
Furthermore, he ranked second in the division for saves (112), which further adds to his appeal as a fantasy asset.
The Dutchman also attempted 454 long passes, completing 333 – both also the second-highest totals in the German top flight.
Given the importance of accurate long balls forward in Brentford’s system, especially fortunate owners of Flekken may even be rewarded with a rare goalkeeper assist.
Even if that unlikely scenario never comes to pass, though, Flekken looks to have all the tools to replicate Raya’s success between the sticks for the Bees.
James Tarkowski (£4.5m)
James Tarkowski is, at the time of writing, owned by less than 2% of fantasy managers.
His yellow flag may be a factor in that, after he appeared to sustain an injury on the eve of the season in Everton’s 1-0 friendly victory over Sporting CP.
However, Toffees boss Sean Dyche has eased fears over the centre-back’s condition, claiming the club were “being ultra careful” with the defender and describing the injury as “just a knock”.
Like Flekken, Tarkowski started 100% of Everton’s Premier League games last term – testament to his durability.
The Merseyside outfit will be hoping for a much more comfortable campaign after only narrowly avoiding the drop in 2022-23 – and Tarkowski’s defensive prowess will be key.
Last term, he made more interceptions (295), won more aerial duels (145), and recorded more successful defensive actions (422) than any other player in the Premier League.
His active approach to defending not only increases Everton’s clean sheet prospects under the pragmatic Dyche, but also makes him a prime candidate for bonus points when he puts in particularly dogged performances.
At just £4.5m, Tarkowski could prove a handy low-cost differential.
Kai Havertz (£7.5m)
Arsenal’s kind opening run of fixtures, coupled with their emergence as a title-challenging side last season, has made their assets popular pick-ups for fantasy managers.
The most popular Gunners to this point have included Bukayo Saka (£8.5m), Gabriel (£5m) and Martin Odegaard (£8.5m), among others. Gabriel Jesus also featured highly in squads before suffering an injury that has ruled him out of the start of the season.
Kai Havertz, meanwhile, can be found in less than 6% of teams.
His underwhelming 2022-23 campaign for Chelsea, coupled with the reliability of other Arsenal assets, is likely the cause of that.
However, the German started up front for the Gunners as they beat Manchester City on penalties in the Community Shield final and could reprise that role in Jesus’ absence.
Furthermore, the 24-year-old has been reclassified as a midfielder from a forward and savvy managers who lack the funds to land two of Arsenal’s more expensive midfield assets could benefit from Havertz’s slightly lower price tag and more advanced position in the early weeks of the season.
Even though his final season at Stamford Bridge failed to capture the imagination, Havertz’s underlying statistics paint a picture of a player who has the potential to deliver regularly in front of goal.
He ranked fifth in the Premier League last term for headed shots (22) and eighth for touches in the opposition box (141) – very encouraging numbers that prove he has a knack for getting into dangerous positions.
The elephant in the room, of course, is the fact that he scored just seven goals and underperformed his xG of 9.21 in the process. His failure to find the net despite finding himself on the end of several presentable chances added to his growing reputation as a wasteful finisher.
However, his post-shot xG (which provides a measurable gauge of the quality of a player’s shooting) for Chelsea in 2022-23 was actually 9.48, higher than his xG – which suggests he was foiled by some exceptional goalkeeping.
For managers looking for a slightly cheaper route into the Arsenal attack, a low-owned £7.5m midfielder likely to play up front is certainly not an opportunity to be sniffed at.
Leandro Trossard (£7m)
In keeping with the theme of low-owned, cheap routes into the Arsenal attack is the versatile Leandro Trossard, who has been selected by around 6% of fantasy managers at the time of writing.
Despite playing just 2,439 league minutes last term, the Belgian racked up 10 assists – behind only Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah and Michael Olise.
The two-footed technician proved himself a dual threat in 2022-23, assisting 23 shots and completing 22 key passes as well as taking 126 touches in the opposition box – all of which ranked inside the division’s top 20.
Trossard is another who looks set to benefit from Jesus’ absence through injury, particularly considering his versatility – he has been used on the wing, as a false nine and as one of two attacking midfielders since joining the Gunners from Brighton and Hove Albion in January.
Saka, Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli’s minutes appear the most secure, but that leaves up to two more attacking spots in manager Mikel Arteta’s starting line-up – with Havertz, Trossard and Eddie Nketiah the prime candidates.
The Spanish tactician did field a more conservative 4-2-3-1 in the Community Shield final against City, with Thomas Partey partnering Declan Rice in a double pivot, but he has largely stuck with his preferred 4-3-3 featuring a lone defensive midfielder and that tactical tweak may have been opposition-specific.
Trossard’s ability to play in a variety of roles increases his chances of securing minutes, and he is even cheaper than Havertz at just £7m. Should he be granted a regular role in the early stages of the season, he could prove a high-value differential.
Julian Alvarez (£6.5m)
The injuries to Jesus and Chelsea new-boy Christopher Nkunku, as well as the possible departure of Harry Kane to Bayern Munich, have depleted the already thin ranks of reliable forward options in fantasy.
Must-have premium Erling Haaland (£14m) aside, forward is the area that has seen the most variance thus far, with Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8m) the only other player to be selected by more than 20% of managers.
As a result, City’s Julian Alvarez is an appealing differential at around 4% ownership at the time of writing.
Pep Guardiola’s fondness for chopping and changing personnel in his line-ups (not-so-affectionately referred to as ‘Pep roulette’) means the Argentina international’s minutes are not as secure as some might like – hence his low ownership.
However, the exits of Riyad Mahrez and Ilkay Gundogan have reduced competition for minutes in the attacking positions in support of Haaland, paving the way for Alvarez to play more than the 1,608 Premier League minutes he was afforded last season.
In spite of his limited game-time, the 23-year-old netted nine times in the division at a rate of 0.5 per 90 – or one every other game.
Per 90, he ranked inside the competition’s top 20 for expected goal contribution (0.52), post-shot xG (0.41), non-penalty xG (0.37) and shots (2.57).
Alvarez boasts a significant goal threat and, given he started in the Community Shield final as well as City’s last two friendlies against Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich, he could be in line for a more prominent role this season.
At just £6.5m, he could provide real value as a differential forward – at least, for managers willing to play Pep roulette.
All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.