Why Newcastle aren’t getting the best out of Joelinton

Looks can be deceiving, especially in football. For example, take Joelinton. If he walked past and you knew nothing about him other than the fact he was a forward, you’d assume he was a target man. 

The Brazilian is 6ft1 and has a presence about him. He was signed by Newcastle United to replace 6ft2 Salomón Rondón. On paper, it was like for like, and this was enough for the Magpies to believe they’d replaced their loanee goalscorer. They deployed Joelinton as their centre-forward and tasked him with operating in a near-identical way to Rondón. 

While at Hoffenheim, the 23-year-old attempted 6.85 aerial duels on a per 90 basis. Since the switch to St James’ Park, this figure has jumped to near 12. It’s worth noting that Rondón was averaging a similar number of aerial battles when turning out for Newcastle. 

Another interesting change to Joelinton’s game was just how involved he was. In the Bundesliga, he attempted, on average, 26 passes per 90. This dropped to 21 in the Premier League, exactly the same number as the man he replaced. Now, a difference of five passes per game might not seem like much but over the course of a 38-game campaign, it’s a difference of 190. 

Not only was Joelinton attempting a fewer number of passes, but he was also receiving fewer. While plying his trade for Die Kraichgauer under Julian Nagelsmann, the Brazilian received close to 16 passes per 90. For the Toon Army, this is closer to 10. It isn’t just that he’s receiving fewer passes either, the key part of this is the type of pass.

Viz and graphics produced in the Twenty3 Content Toolbox, using Wyscout data

As you can see above, the majority of passes to Joelinton in Germany arrived from the centre-midfielders and the wing-backs. He was also partnered with another striker and an advanced midfielder usually made it into an attacking trio. Usually, he was alongside two from Ádám Szalai, Andrej Kramarić and Ishak Belfodil. The latter two scored 17 and 16 Bundesliga goals respectively. 

At Newcastle, he’s dealing with a lot of balls from deeper areas and he’s not as supported as he was at the PreZero Arena. For Hoffenheim, Joelinton was heavily involved in their build-up play. At Newcastle, he’s primarily tasked with competing for long balls and recycling possession, evidenced in the passes made network below.

Viz and graphics produced in the Twenty3 Content Toolbox, using Wyscout data

The former Rapid Wien man impressed in a specific system playing a particular role. But even then he was by no means prolific for Hoffenheim. He averaged 0.28 goals with an expected goals average of 0.25 per 90. But he wasn’t the main source of goals so it wasn’t necessarily a problem. 

Viz and graphics produced in the Twenty3 Content Toolbox, using Wyscout data

Newcastle, however, wanted him to be the goal threat for their team. But they didn’t go about building a system around his strengths. In fact, his non-dead ball expected goals average this season is 0.14. Yes, Joelinton has underperformed but even if he’d hit his averages, it still only works out at 4.3 goals in the 2,842 minutes he featured in. 

The Magpies signed a really effective second striker and used him – poorly – as a centre-forward, then wondered why he didn’t live up to his £40million price-tag.

All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Content Toolbox.

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