Why is Patrick Bamford so prolific away from home?

Up until this season, Patrick Bamford’s Premier League career had yielded just one goal. That solitary strike arrived during the 2016/17 campaign when he was a Middlesbrough player. He’d drawn blanks for Crystal Palace, Norwich City and Burnley prior to that despite plundering goals at Championship level. Fast forward four years, however, and only four players can better the 27-year-old’s return of eight goals in 11 appearances this season. 

Bamford has been one of the surprise packages of the 2020/21 campaign and, to date, he’s been responsible for 50% of the goals scored by Leeds United on their return to the English top flight. 

He’s already netted against Liverpool and Chelsea, but no doubt his highlight so far was the hat-trick against Aston Villa. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about his return is that all but one of Bamford’s goals have come away from Elland Road. 

Roberto Firmino had a similar record last season. At Anfield, he just couldn’t score, but away from home he was chipping in for the eventual champions. When looking at his numbers, it became apparent that his finishing at home was poor. He was getting into good areas, but failing to convert the chances. His shot placement was devaluing his efforts. 

Using the vast array of stats available in the Twenty3 Toolbox, we’re able to see that isn’t the case with Bamford. He’s actually been unlucky in the five homes fixtures so far. Expected goals (xG) tells you the quality of a chance, post-shot xG quantifies the quality of the shot. The former England Under-21 international has an xG total of 1.75 but a post-shot xG total of 2.05 meaning he’s 1.05 down on his actual return at Elland Road this season. 

Unlike Firmino, Bamford has actually been adding value to his efforts with his shot placement. Bad luck and good goalkeeping have prevented him from adding more to his haul at home. 

On the road this season, Leeds have created better shooting opportunities for their centre-forward, as highlighted in the shot maps above. It’s been the perfect storm for him. His xG per 90 average at home is 0.34 compared to the 0.65 away from Elland Road.

Furthermore, he’s still adding value to these attempts with his post-shot xG average coming in at 0.92 per 90. You then factor in that elite finishers often exceed their underlying numbers and it’s no surprise that Bamford has seven goals from a post-shot xG total of 5.55. 

Away from home, the onus is on the opposition to attack Marcelo Bielsa’s side. When the ball is turned over, there are more moments for Leeds to do what they’re good at and flood players forward. This might explain why Bamford’s output increases. 

He’s averaging more shots (4.3 to 2.95) and receiving more passes (10.75 to 8.06) when Leeds are the visiting team. 

Furthermore, as highlighted in the importance of shot placement feature, Bamford’s technique of getting shots off really early and hitting the bottom corners lends itself to playing away from home. During turnovers, defences, generally, aren’t set and this is when the No.9 finds pockets of time and space to pick his moments. At home, it’s different. Teams, as a general rule, won’t over-commit. 

If Leeds keep creating chances, Bamford will continue to be amongst the goals. But he’ll be much more of a threat when playing away from home. 

All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.

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