Why Romelu Lukaku is one of the most underrated forwards in Europe

When Romelu Lukaku left Manchester United to join Inter, parts of the English media appeared to write the then 26-year-old off as past his best. His second and final season at Old Trafford yielded just 12 Premier League goals and it was evident from the off that Ole Gunnar Solskjær didn’t think there was a long-term future for the Belgian at the club. He was left out of matchday squads early on and often had to settle for a place on the bench. 

Yet despite all of this, his average of 0.42 goals per 90 saw him rank 14th in the Premier League for this particular metric. He was sixth for post-shot expected goals, too. He was still a threat and he was still making the most of his opportunities. His limited game time combined with Solskjær’s preference for Marcus Rashford skewed how Lukaku was viewed during his eighth campaign in the English top-flight.

The Belgium international is now into his second year as an Inter player. During his time in Italy, he ranks sixth across Europe’s top five leagues for goals scored (31) and sixth for expected goals (22.5). Only Robert Lewandowski, Ciro Immobile, Cristiano Ronaldo, Timo Werner and Jamie Vardy have a better goals return than he does since the switch to the Nerazzurri. 

The Inter No.9 has more goals than Lionel Messi, Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane, to name but a few. 

For more context, Rashford has struck 20 league goals in that period and Anthony Martial has chipped in with 17. Both have benefited from Lukaku’s departure and it’s clear that the former Everton man needed a fresh start; the move has worked out for everyone. His resurgence in Italy, however, proves he was prematurely written off. 

Lukaku is arguably one of the most underrated forwards in Europe today.   

What makes Lukaku so dangerous is how repeatable his output seems to be. As highlighted in his shot map above, all but one of his goals have come inside the penalty area for Inter. Though this may paint him as a bit of a poacher, he’s far from just that. Antonio Conte’s leading man finishes off counter-attacks, he’s there to emphatically fire home a loose ball in the area after making a late run from deep and he has the knack for being in the right place at the right time. Inter, occasionally, press high up the pitch and Lukaku’s intelligent movement often sees him add the exclamation point to a swift, concise attack. 

Lukaku’s return of 31 in 45 Serie A matches is even more impressive when you consider he’s only averaging 2.78 shots per 90. Unlike many of his peers, he’s not reliant on volume. 

For example, Ronaldo’s 39 goals for Juventus have come from an average of 5.67 shots per 90. His eight extra goals have come at a cost of 111 more shots than the Anderlecht academy graduate. 

He’s a player you build your attack around. Play to his strengths and he guarantees you goals. The radar comparison below highlights how Lukaku has managed to scale his output since the switch to San Siro, but also shows his final campaign as a Red Devil wasn’t anywhere near as bad as some thought. 

The key difference is Inter aren’t treating him as a target man. He used to compete for over seven aerial duels per 90 while at Old Trafford. That number is currently 4.08 during his time in Italy. Not only that, though, the number of headed efforts he’s having has also decreased. At United, 22% of his shots were headers, but over the past two seasons that average has dropped to 16%. It might not seem like much but, as mentioned earlier, he isn’t a high volume player. At United, one in every 4.5 shots was a header.

Furthermore, headers notoriously have a low expected goals average. Taking all of this into account, it’s no wonder Lukaku is scoring more goals and adding value to his chances now. He’s now in more control of his shot selection and as a result, he’s able to pick the moments that best suit him. He’s been unburdened and Inter are benefitting.

All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.

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