The battle to start for Japan pt II: Right wingers
Japan boast a dazzling array of attacking talent, giving manager Hajime Moriyasu the best kind of headache as he ponders the make-up of his best side.
The Blue Samurai have shifted exclusively to a back four since their World Cup exit on penalties against Croatia, having alternated between that and a back five in Qatar.
Left winger Kaoru Mitoma and attacking midfielder Daichi Kamada look to be certain starters when fit, as do central midfield pair Wataru Endo and Hidemasa Morita, but there is fierce competition for the right-wing berth.
Using the Twenty3 Toolbox to crunch the numbers, we analyse the three major contenders for that spot – Takefusa Kubo, Ritsu Doan and Junya Ito.
Takefusa Kubo
Real Sociedad’s Kubo enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2022-23, scoring nine times in 35 LaLiga appearances – a career-high total for a single campaign
The 22-year-old has picked up where he left off in 2023-24 and has already netted five league goals in just nine games at a rate of 0.67 per 90 – a vastly superior record to his two competitors, who have just one league strike apiece this term.
However, La Real’s star winger has been overperforming his xG by 0.49 per game on average, suggesting this rate of goalscoring may not be sustainable.
Kubo also offers more creativity than his rivals for a Japan starting spot, averaging 0.21 open-play expected assists and 0.98 completed key passes per 90 in league competition – but where he really shines is as a ball-carrier.
The diminutive forward is superb with the ball at his feet, completing 3.82 dribbles and recording 4.19 progressive runs per 90 in LaLiga this term.
He even shows a willingness to defend from the front, averaging more pressing duels per match (eight) than either Doan or Ito.
Ritsu Doan
Freiburg’s Doan may not be able to match Kubo’s goal tally this term – but he has actually hit the target with more regularity per 90 in league competition (1.18 to 0.74).
The 25-year-old has even averaged a slightly higher xG per game, recording 0.13 to Kubo’s 0.12.
However, it is off the ball where Doan’s true value comes to light.
He has recorded more successful defensive actions (7.74) and won more defensive duels (5.05) per 90 than either of his right-wing competitors.
Much of that gritty defensive work is done in advanced areas, too, with Doan also recovering the ball in the opposition half more often (3.7) than his counterparts per match.
Junya Ito
Reims winger Ito has actually been selected to start for Japan more often than either Kubo or Doan since the start of the last World Cup.
The latter pair have started five games apiece, while Ito’s record is eight.
The 30-year-old was often deployed at right wing-back in Qatar, but the subsequent shift to a four-man defence puts him in competition for a spot on the wing.
His Ligue 1 numbers paint a picture of a direct player who regularly looks to play ambitious passes.
Per 90, Ito has attempted 1.61 through-balls, 2.82 long passes, 3.63 crosses and 4.03 final third passes – all more than his two Japan competitors.
Who should start?
Kubo’s clever close control, willingness to press and superior threat in the final third – averaging 0.86 goal contributions per game in league competition this season – suggest the talented young forward should be Moriyasu’s first pick on the right wing.
However, Doan’s indefatigable defensive effort could convince the Japan head coach to turn to the Bundesliga man against opponents who are likely to dominate the ball.
Junya struggles to make a case as a starter ahead of the aforementioned duo – but his direct style and experience could be useful off the bench, particularly when the Blue Samurai are chasing a game.
All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.