The battle to start for Japan pt III: Centre-forwards

Japan head coach Hajime Moriyasu has a problem – he is yet to work out who his first-choice centre-forward is.

Since the beginning of the 2022 World Cup, he has started six different players in the role.

Three of those have been selected three times each – Celtic pair Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda and Feyenoord striker Ayase Ueda.

The trio have all played between 200 and 300 minutes for Japan in this time, scoring two goals apiece.

We used the Twenty3 Toolbox to dig deeper into their numbers in an effort to pick out the standout candidate to spearhead the Blue Samurai’s attack.

Kyogo Furuhashi

Furuhashi’s phenomenal start to the season makes him the obvious place to start.

The Celtic striker has racked up seven goal contributions in nine league outings, with five of those being goals – only team-mate Matt O’Riley can better either of those tallies in the Scottish Premiership.

However, upon closer inspection, the 28-year-old has been dramatically overperforming both his xG and his post-shot xG, by 2.1 and 2.94, respectively. Both are league-high margins, suggesting this level of production may be unsustainable.

A glance at his 2022-23 numbers, though, reveals a stellar record of 34 goals in 50 games across all competitions, easing fears that he is simply going through a purple patch. 

Furuhashi offers more than just a goal threat, too. He is terrific off the ball, attempting 70 pressing duels – more than any other player in the Scottish top flight.

Daizen Maeda

Intriguingly, Maeda has been utilised almost exclusively as a striker for Japan despite operating as a winger at club level.

He has not enjoyed the same level of productivity at the start of this campaign as Celtic team-mate Furuhashi, but his underlying numbers suggest he has been extremely unfortunate.

The 26-year-old ranks top of the Scottish Premiership for non-penalty shots on target (15), third for non-penalty xG (4.19) and second for non-penalty post-shot xG (6.44), but only has two goals to show for his efforts.

The vast disparity between his post-shot xG and actual goals in particular indicates that his underperformance is not down to a lack of finishing quality.

Encouragingly, Maeda also ranks third in the league for touches in the opposition box (42) despite being deployed out wide, and is no slouch off the ball either, attempting 62 pressing duels.

His 57 successful attacking actions are equally impressive, though it is unlikely that he will be able to replicate those numbers from a more central role.

Ayase Ueda

Ueda – despite actually playing more minutes for Japan since the start of the last World Cup than either Furuhashi or Maeda – has been used primarily as a substitute for new club Feyenoord after joining this summer.

He has accumulated just 174 league minutes across seven appearances so far this season, while the aforementioned pair have played 714 and 799 league minutes, respectively.

As a result, per 90 metrics are required to more accurately compare Ueda to his counterparts. His metrics are likely to be skewed somewhat by a small sample size, but conclusions can still be drawn.

Ueda’s substitute appearances in the Eredivisie have been anything but quiet, as evidenced by his averages for shots (5.17), xG (1.0) and expected goal contribution (1.05) per 90.

The 25-year-old has also been dangerous on the break, recording 0.36 xG in counter-attacks per 90.

Who should start?

The sheer volume of Furuhashi’s productivity makes him difficult to ignore, despite concerns over his underlying numbers. 

Maeda, however, was first-choice at the World Cup, starting three of Japan’s four games – while Furuhashi was not included in the squad at all – and the strength of his own underlying statistics could ensure he remains the go-to pick.

Ueda’s lack of regular game-time since switching Belgium for the Netherlands this summer makes him difficult to assess, though he has certainly shown the capacity to affect games as a substitute – a valuable asset for any international side. 

All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.