What to expect from each MLS is Back Tournament semi-finalist

By next Tuesday we’ll know the identity of the inaugural MLS is Back Tournament winner and who will qualify for the 2021 CONCACAF Champions League.

The hastily arranged tournament, which is being held behind closed doors at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Bay Lake, FL., has thrown up its fair share of surprises and storylines.

Reigning MLS Cup champions Seattle Sounders were crushed 4-1 in the last-16 by Los Angeles FC who were then dumped out by Orlando City, the franchise which finished third-last in the 2019 regular-season standings. Even the group stages were unpredictable, with Atlanta United, 2018 MLS Cup champions, crashing out along with LA Galaxy and NY Red Bulls.

Ahead of this week’s semi-finals, we used the Twenty3 Content Toolbox to preview each of the four remaining sides at MLS is Back.

Philadelphia Union

Conference semi-finalists in 2018, The U reached the knockout stage of the MLS is Back Tournament by finishing runners-up to surprise package Orlando City in Group A. But only by dint of scoring fewer goals (6-4) than Óscar Pareja’s side. That’s a pattern which has followed throughout this makeshift tournament. If you want goals, maybe Jim Curtin’s side aren’t for you.

With just four in three group stage games, they eased past New England Revolution 1-0 before a 3-1 quarter-final win over Sporting Kansas City set up a semi-final against Portland Timbers. Per 90, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals yet their open-play expected goals score is only 0.59. With some clever finishing that rises to 0.73 post-shot xG per 90 – a figure which is still only 19th-best at MLS is Back.

Just 8.8 shots per 90 ranks 18th among the 24 competing franchises and when we look at Philly’s shot map (below) it’s easy to see why they’re registering so few noteworthy efforts.

Whether by design or coincidence, The U are taking a lot of shots from outside the penalty area and all but a handful of their attempts on goal at MLS is Back would be considered low-value. The fact they’ve scored five such efforts – two from outside the box – suggests their luck has to run out eventually.

In terms of their style of play, Philadelphia rank fifth for long passes attempted (per 90) with 44.4 and seventh for completions (25). They come fourth last for passes attempted (344.6) and completed (279.4) too with a huge reliance on attacks down the right-hand side, outlined in their flank attacks visualisation (below).

Yet while head coach Curtin presides over such an obdurate defence, that isn’t a huge problem.

Philadelphia’s open-play xG conceded total for the tournament is just 5.01 – the seventh-best in Orlando – but they’ve bettered that by shipping just three times en-route to the semi-finals. Per 90, Philadelphia rank fourth for successful defensive actions (102.2) but they are worked hard, contesting the third-most (147) per 90.

What is particularly interesting about Philadelphia is the depth of their defensive line, outlined in the graphic above. Curtin’s side, particularly down the left, invite pressure. Yet it’s defensive errors on the opposing flank which have been to blame for each of the goals they’ve conceded.

In the 2-1 win over Inter Miami, right-back Ray Gaddis is caught out of position, allowing Matías Pellegrini to cross low for Rodolfo Pizarro to stab home. Gaddis was at fault again versus Orlando City, showing little to no intent to get out to Luis Nani who crossed unimpeded for Mauricio Pereyra to head home. And it was a similar story in the win over SKC, Gaddis nowhere near Alan Pulido as he headed home bravely from Jonny Russell’s cross.

So, in summary, if you want to get at The U, go down their right-hand side.

Portland Timbers

Coming out on top in Group F ahead of LAFC and LA Galaxy, 2018 MLS Cup runners-up Portland breezed past Toronto FC and NYCFC to reach the semis. They’ll now be considered favourites to get their hands on the silverware.

The numbers make impressive reading for head coach Giovanni Savarese – his side have the third-most goals per 90 (2) and rank eighth with 1.12 expected goals (per 90). They’re also seventh for completed passes in the final third with 44.4. Hardly surprising when you have the combined creative talents of Sebastián Blanco and Diego Valeri.

As we can see from the Timbers’ open-play post-shot xG map, Savarese’s side have created – and scored – a lot of high-quality opportunities in good areas of the 18-yard box.

There’s also a clear trend of chances coming from the left-hand side and we can see why by examining Portland’s team passing network (below). The thicker the line, the more often passes are made between those two players.

It’s no coincidence a lot of the Timbers’ play is funnelled down the left with left-centre-back Dario Župarić passing to left-back Jorge Vilfaña who, in turn, routinely finds left-winger Blanco. With six assists, no player has recorded more at MLS is Back.

Looking at Blanco’s shot assist map (below) it’s evident he isn’t only a threat from the left either. The 32-year-old Argentine has assisted twice while operating from the right where you’d ordinarily expect to find Yimi Chará stationed. Despite netting ten times in five MLS is Back fixtures, Portland’s leading marksman – with just three goals – is striker Jeremy Ebobisse, who bagged important goals in each of their group fixtures.

Getting more high-quality service into Ebobisse is crucial to the Timbers’ chances of advancing. Despite his three group-stage strikes, the one-time USMNT international has had only three on-target efforts in the knockout stages.

Orlando City

Third bottom of the MLS regular season standings last season and still yet to reach the post-season in their four-year franchise history, The Lions could be on the verge of something special under new coach Pareja. They were third overall when coronavirus halted the 2020 MLS season and have been the surprise package at MLS is Back.

Topping Group A with a 2-1-0 record, Orlando dispatched Montreal Impact 1-0 in the last-16 before overcoming highly-fancied LAFC in the quarters, 5-4 on penalty kicks following a 1-1 draw. Sceptics will claim Orlando weren’t facing a full-strength LAFC side – Carlos Vela isn’t in Orlando – but tell that to the Galaxy, thumped 6-2 in El Tráfico earlier in the competition.

Pareja, who has previously coached in the league with FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids, has quickly stamped his mark on this Orlando side. There is a big onus on using the flanks and, with former Manchester United winger Nani as one of their DPs, why not?

Denoted by the LW marker above, there is a clear emphasis on getting the ball out to the 112-cap Portuguese international who has flourished in Florida since arriving from Sporting CP last year. Indeed, the whole shape of Pareja’s side is lopsided in favour of the left with the team’s right-sided players almost isolated.

Nani’s 0.54 assists per 90 put him ninth at MLS is Back while he completes 3.95 of 5.03 take-ons attempted. The 33-year-old’s importance to the side was underlined in assisting the equaliser and converting the winning penalty against LAFC in the quarter-finals. He’d earlier missed a spot-kick.

But don’t get drawn into thinking Nani is Orlando’s only star. As touched upon last week, forward Chris Mueller is making good on his talent with three goals so far. Another youngster who’s proving key is left-back João Moutinho. Cut by LAFC after his rookie year, the 22-year-old was the first overall pick at the 2018 SuperDraft. But it’s in Orlando where he’s found his best form.

Linking up with Nani down Orlando’s left, we can see from the map of passes received and movements made how heavily involved Moutinho is in Orlando’s attacking play. In fact, he is regularly seen overlapping Nani to get into dangerous crossing positions.

Moutinho is second among left-backs at MLS is Back for final-third passes attempted (per 90) with 7.49 and third for forward passes completed (13.9). No-one, though, can top the 40.81 passes he completes per 90 – all while winning the eighth-most defensive duels (1.43) by a left-back.

The left-hand side is what makes Orlando such a wilcard threat in these semi-finals, but there’s far more to The Lions than their illustrious captain.

Minnesota United

Second in the Western Conference with a 3-0-2 record when the season was halted, Adrian Heath’s side have carried that form with them to Florida. Unbeaten in Group D as they progressed behind Sporting Kansas City, Minnesota needed penalties to see off Columbus Crew before trouncing San Jose Earthquakes 4-1 in the last eight.

Speaking after that 4-1 defeat of San Jose, Heath said: “As I said before, I’ve probably got more faith in this group than anybody else – certainly more than you, the press, and the people everywhere else who continually seem to think that we struggle to get through. It’ll be interesting to read the narrative tomorrow when we look at the scoreline.”

And, when asked if the Loons would be considered favourites following their impressive showing, he replied: “I wouldn’t think so. I’m reading the papers, listening to everybody. But hey, I don’t care about that, you know that, as I mentioned to the players, for sure.”

Only wingers Ethan Finlay and Robin Lod have scored more than once for MNUFC at MLS is Back, not that it matters. Analysing their open-play on-target xG map we can see the Loons are creating plenty of high-quality chances.

That’s reflected in the fact their 1.8 goals per 90 ranks fifth with an open-play post-shot xG of 1.58 also fifth. Replacing the goals of Darwin Quintero, who was twice top scorer before being traded to Houston in the off-season, was the challenge facing Heath and the franchise’s recruitment team.

By sharing the goals around, they appear to have done just that. Kevin Molino is one of those who have been charged with stepping up to replace the Colombian. While the 30-year-old has netted just once, his 7.6 completed take-ons per 90 put him second at MLS is Back. That’s pertinent because Minnesota United attempt the third-most dribbles (33.3) per 90.

That in itself goes some way to explaining their 347 attempted passes each match – only four teams muster fewer than the Loons. But with an emphasis on high pressing, there’s less need to construct from deep. Minnesota are 11th for ball recoveries in the opponent’s half with 20.8 per 90.

The defensive line action areas visualisation above only serves to back that up. Full-backs Romain Métanire and Chase Gasper get high – as does left-sided centre-half Michael Boxall – to regain possession early. Indeed, Boxall also deserves his fair share of credit for an outstanding tournament in Orlando. The New Zealander made five ball recoveries, a tackle, two blocks, three clearances and blocked a cross against San Jose.

Underestimate this Minnesota United side at your peril – Adrian Heath would love nothing more…

All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Content Toolbox.

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